Economics of stolen bicycles

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Economics of stolen bicycles

Postby sogood » Sat Sep 22, 2012 12:31 pm

Couldn't see this being posted on a quick search.

Interesting analysis on the economics of stolen bicycles. Fingers crossed that someone smart will find a hole in the economics to interrupt the process.

http://blog.priceonomics.com/post/30393 ... n-bicycles
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by BNA » Sun Sep 23, 2012 1:42 pm

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Re: Economics of stolen bicycles

Postby KonaCommuter » Sun Sep 23, 2012 1:42 pm

sogood wrote:Couldn't see this being posted on a quick search.

Interesting analysis on the economics of stolen bicycles. Fingers crossed that someone smart will find a hole in the economics to interrupt the process.

http://blog.priceonomics.com/post/30393 ... n-bicycles



Fascinating


Thank you for sharing the link
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Re: Economics of stolen bicycles

Postby Crowz » Sun Sep 23, 2012 5:57 pm

Unfortunately I can't see this changing. I agree with them that career crooks would be better off in the drug/prostitution game but for a small time crook I can imagine it's a LOT easier to steal two bikes and sell them for $3,000 than go and rob a house and sell jewellery/tv etc for $5,000. I struggle to think of any other item worth a pretty penny so easy to pinch just being 'secured' on the street. The only way I can see bike theft being reduced is if the thieves are charged with something as severe as break and enter.

This video also sums it up. People are cowards - look how many people witness but don't say a word about theft.
[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UGttmR2DTY8&feature=plcp[/youtube]

Also, this is quite amusing :)
[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wW6gGyfxn1U&feature=plcp[/youtube]


***I do not condone the stealing of bicycles!
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Re: Economics of stolen bicycles

Postby diggler » Tue Sep 25, 2012 9:32 am

Crowz wrote:Unfortunately I can't see this changing. I agree with them that career crooks would be better off in the drug/prostitution game but for a small time crook I can imagine it's a LOT easier to steal two bikes and sell them for $3,000 than go and rob a house and sell jewellery/tv etc for $5,000. I struggle to think of any other item worth a pretty penny so easy to pinch just being 'secured' on the street. The only way I can see bike theft being reduced is if the thieves are charged with something as severe as break and enter.

This video also sums it up. People are cowards - look how many people witness but don't say a word about theft.
[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UGttmR2DTY8&feature=plcp[/youtube]

Also, this is quite amusing :)
[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wW6gGyfxn1U&feature=plcp[/youtube]


***I do not condone the stealing of bicycles!


If you saw someone on the street, how would you know it is not their own bike. They could have lost their key.

The best deterrent is to have a crap bike.
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Re: Economics of stolen bicycles

Postby Undertow » Tue Sep 25, 2012 4:35 pm

diggler wrote:If you saw someone on the street, how would you know it is not their own bike. They could have lost their key.

The best deterrent is to have a crap bike.


Just go up to them and go "HEY THATS MY BIKE", odds are if it's a thief they'll run away, if it's the owner they'll dispute it and you can explain you thought they were a thief and you were trying to scare them away.
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Re: Economics of stolen bicycles

Postby Sydguy » Tue Sep 25, 2012 5:45 pm

The economics of it did not go so far as to say who pays for the theft...

Insurance companies, through premiums paid by us. Or in the case where it is not insured some cyclist is now driving or taking up capacity in PT.

Have a rubbish bike you say? Bike engineers/designers/fancy shops are all part of the economy, and need us to part with hard earned for desirable bikes.

There is no reason why you should not be able to own a decent bike, we need a national registration scheme that includes transfer of ownership and all the trimmings so we reduce the cost to society of the theft.

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Re: Economics of stolen bicycles

Postby Howzat » Tue Sep 25, 2012 9:26 pm

Sydguy wrote: we need a national registration scheme that includes transfer of ownership and all the trimmings so we reduce the cost to society of the theft.

JM

That's been tried and it doesn't work. I mean, we already have heavy-duty car rego scheme including globally unique VIN numbers - but cars still get stolen. Any bike rego scheme is going to suffer from worse compliance and even less effectiveness. At the end of the day, people buying a stolen bikes don't much care if it isn't registered, right? :|

I know overseas police sometimes run bait-bike stings to catch bike thieves. What I'd like to see would be stolen-bike sales stings, where a shiny new $1000 bike is advertised for say $100, punters are told flat out it's cheap because it's stolen, then everyone who buys it gets to explain themselves to the nice Magistrate at the local court. Might be considered "entrapment", but it also might cool the market for stolen bikes a little after you take in your first thousand "bargain-hunters"...
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Re: Economics of stolen bicycles

Postby pauls51 » Tue Sep 25, 2012 9:36 pm

Howzat wrote:
I know overseas police sometimes run bait-bike stings to catch bike thieves. What I'd like to see would be stolen-bike sales stings, where a shiny new $1000 bike is advertised for say $100, punters are told flat out it's cheap because it's stolen, then everyone who buys it gets to explain themselves to the nice Magistrate at the local court. Might be considered "entrapment", but it also might cool the market for stolen bikes a little after you take in your first thousand "bargain-hunters"...


Good idea!!!!! Entrapment as such doesn't work in Australia so that would work!!!
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Re: Economics of stolen bicycles

Postby RobertFrith » Wed Sep 26, 2012 12:29 am

diggler wrote:The best deterrent is to have a crap bike.

Then you have to be content riding a crap bike - not a great deal of mileage in that. Taken to it's logical conclusion that argument would have you watching a crap TV from a crap sofa, wearing crap clothes whilst eating (potentially good) food you've cooked in crap microwave. If you happen to live in a crap neighbourhood the chances of your crap bike being stolen and your crap house being burned to the ground are going to be higher too.

Welcome to your crap life....
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Re: Economics of stolen bicycles

Postby diggler » Wed Sep 26, 2012 2:07 am

RobertFrith wrote:
diggler wrote:The best deterrent is to have a crap bike.

Then you have to be content riding a crap bike - not a great deal of mileage in that. Taken to it's logical conclusion that argument would have you watching a crap TV from a crap sofa, wearing crap clothes whilst eating (potentially good) food you've cooked in crap microwave. If you happen to live in a crap neighbourhood the chances of your crap bike being stolen and your crap house being burned to the ground are going to be higher too.

Welcome to your crap life....


I don't think anyone is going to steal a sofa.

If you have to park in the street all the time in a dodgy area, a $500 bike would suffice. Just use your good bike when you can park it securely.
That's what a fool does. I'm invincible, I'm paying money ... uh ... The girl's happy, she's got no money, I got my rocks off. How good is this?
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Re: Economics of stolen bicycles

Postby HelmutHerr » Wed Sep 26, 2012 12:49 pm

My question is how value savvy thieves are. Is an ugly $2000 bike less at risk than a smick looking POS from a supermarket?
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Re: Economics of stolen bicycles

Postby bychosis » Wed Sep 26, 2012 3:48 pm

HelmutHerr wrote:My question is how value savvy thieves are. Is an ugly $2000 bike less at risk than a smick looking POS from a supermarket?


Depends on the theif. Opportunistic theif will take anything shiny that isn't bolted down properly. Professional theif will only take what they can get good money for, and probably know how much most stuff is worth before they attempt to cut the locks.
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Re: Economics of stolen bicycles

Postby HelmutHerr » Wed Sep 26, 2012 4:31 pm

bychosis wrote:
HelmutHerr wrote:My question is how value savvy thieves are. Is an ugly $2000 bike less at risk than a smick looking POS from a supermarket?


Depends on the theif. Opportunistic theif will take anything shiny that isn't bolted down properly. Professional theif will only take what they can get good money for, and probably know how much most stuff is worth before they attempt to cut the locks.

So I wonder what the risk hurdle is. There must be a security-to-bike value ratio that dictates how much it's worth spending to protect a bike.

Wouldn't have much application, but interesting.
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Re: Economics of stolen bicycles

Postby Howzat » Wed Sep 26, 2012 4:34 pm

I think the rule of thumb is spend 10% of the bikes value in locks, and/or get two D-locks of different kinds, one for the front wheel & frame, and one for the back wheel and frame. After that, buy insurance for your bikes.

Also - GPS trackers. 8)
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Re: Economics of stolen bicycles

Postby HelmutHerr » Wed Sep 26, 2012 4:36 pm

Howzat wrote:I think the rule of thumb is spend 10% of the bikes value in locks, and/or get two D-locks of different kinds, one for the front wheel & frame, and one for the back wheel and frame. After that, buy insurance for your bikes.

Also - GPS trackers. 8)

It would make sense for organised bike thieves to immediately look for the GPS unit. Are they well hidden?
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