2018 WRRC - who's gonna win ?

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MichaelB
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2018 WRRC - who's gonna win ?

Postby MichaelB » Thu Sep 20, 2018 8:55 am

It's an interesting course. The total climbing isn't huge compared to other hilly 1 day classics at a shade over 4,500m, and the distance is typical as well, but it's the steepness of the climbs that seem to be the issue.

So who's gonna win ?

Many are talking Nibali, but his Vuelta was quiet, "but that's part of the build up", and so was Porte. Quintana seems to be out of it.

CN has Moscon as an outside pick - that'd be a popular win :roll: . Not.

I honestly don't know, but gonna watch it !!

Hope Rohan gets the ITT - he's flying atm.

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find_bruce
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Re: 2018 WRRC - who's gonna win ?

Postby find_bruce » Thu Sep 20, 2018 10:10 am

Current odds are
    Alejandro Valverde 4.00
    Julian Alaphilippe 6.50
    Vincenzo Nibali 13.00
    Simon Yates 13.00
    Thibaut Pinot 17.00
    Primoz Roglic 17.00
    Adam Yates 17.00
    Michal Kwiatkowski 21.00
    Wout Poels 23.00
    Gianni Moscon 31.00
    Mikel Landa 31.00
    Enric Mas Nicolau 36.00
    Daniel Martin 36.00
    Rigoberto Uran 36.00
    Tom Dumoulin 36.00
    Romain Bardet 36.00
    Peter Sagan 36.00
    Miguel Angel Lopez 36.00
    Tim Wellens 36.00
    Michael Woods 41.00
    Jakob Fuglsang 41.00
    Bob Jungels 41.00
    Rafal Majka 51.00
    Tony Gallopin 51.00
    Sergio Luis Henao 51.00
    Richie Porte 51.00
    Greg Van Avermaet 51.00
I'm with you about Porte, didn't show enough signs of recovery during the Vuelta. Similarly I can't see Landa being fit enough in time. I don't think Sagan will win, but he has managed more audacious wins before & didn't push himself in the mountains of the Vuelta.

My money would be on Alaphilippe. Pinot seems to be the other form rider. If Simon Yates or Mas can maintain their form from the Vuelta they are a good chance.

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redsonic
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Re: 2018 WRRC - who's gonna win ?

Postby redsonic » Thu Sep 20, 2018 10:16 am

I was really wondering what this thread was about until I realised you replaced a "C" with an "R" in the thread title...

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Re: 2018 WRRC - who's gonna win ?

Postby Derny Driver » Thu Sep 20, 2018 12:34 pm

My picks, in order...
1. Alaphillipe
2. Kwiatkovski
3. Sagan
4. Valverde
5. Roglic

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Re: 2018 WRRC - who's gonna win ?

Postby RobertL » Thu Sep 20, 2018 2:47 pm

So, Froome's not racing it at all?
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MichaelB
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Re: 2018 WRRC - who's gonna win ?

Postby MichaelB » Thu Sep 20, 2018 4:06 pm

redsonic wrote:I was really wondering what this thread was about until I realised you replaced a "C" with an "R" in the thread title...


:?:

It World Road Race Championship. Isn't it ?



RobertL wrote:So, Froome's not racing it at all?


Nope, and neither is Gee. Announced a while ago.


I'd be happy to see JA win. He'd race well in the Rainbow Stripes

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Re: 2018 WRRC - who's gonna win ?

Postby redsonic » Thu Sep 20, 2018 8:33 pm

Sorry, thought it was world road cycling championships :oops:

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MichaelB
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Re: 2018 WRRC - who's gonna win ?

Postby MichaelB » Thu Sep 20, 2018 8:39 pm

redsonic wrote:Sorry, thought it was world road cycling championships :oops:


:lol: it doesn’t matter, as long as certain people don’t win ....

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Re: 2018 WRRC - who's gonna win ?

Postby find_bruce » Fri Sep 21, 2018 7:12 am

No one will be surprised that Landa is out

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Re: 2018 WRRC - who's gonna win ?

Postby vosadrian » Fri Sep 21, 2018 2:46 pm

If a course is too tough for Sagan, then the next person likely to outsprint those who can make it up a hill Sagan can't is Valverde. Not sure what his condition will be like after he imploded (sort of) at the Vuelta and how good his team support will be, but if the climbers push the pace on the climbs and he makes it to the end where anyone else who can sprint didn't, he is where I would put my money, and I guess the bookies agree!! Biggest question mark is his recovery after Vuelta.

I have Kwiatozki as second choice.
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Re: 2018 WRRC - who's gonna win ?

Postby bianchi928 » Fri Sep 21, 2018 2:49 pm

Get a piece of Jack Haig at $301 to $1 .

If Richie as plan A doesn't work, maybe Haig as plan b might.

I know this thread is about the RR but I am hopeful Rohan Dennis get's it done in the TT.
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Re: 2018 WRRC - who's gonna win ?

Postby MichaelB » Fri Sep 21, 2018 3:45 pm

The thread is about all classes really.

+1 for Rohan. Jai Hindley is in U23 Mens and he did really well at Vuelta

Hope also that Spratt does well and that ANY Aussie does well too.

List of Aussies ;

Men’s Road Race
Simon Clarke
Rohan Dennis
Jack Haig
Chris Hamilton
Damien Howson
Richie Porte
Robert Power
Rory Sutherland

Men’s Time Trial
Rohan Dennis

Women’s Road Race
Grace Brown
Brodie Chapman
Tiffany Cromwell
Shara Gillow
Lucy Kennedy
Sarah Roy
Amanda Spratt

U23 Men’s Road Race
Lucas Hamilton
Jai Hindley
Callum Scotson
Robert Stannard
Michael Storer
James Whelan

U23 Men’s Time Trial
Callum Scotson

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Re: 2018 WRRC - who's gonna win ?

Postby find_bruce » Fri Sep 21, 2018 9:28 pm

5,000m of climbing, 7 times over Igls - 7.9k 5.7%, steepest 10% - before the killer Gramartboden 2.8k 11.5% avg, steepest 20-25%. Sure the finish is downhill then flat but I don't think there will be much of a sprint.

Image

How good is the Columbian team - no Chaves nor Egan Bernal, but they still have Lopez, Uran, Sergio Henao, and Quintana, plus some strong workers such as Acacona.

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Re: 2018 WRRC - who's gonna win ?

Postby find_bruce » Fri Sep 21, 2018 9:34 pm

TT has a big lump 2/3 through
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While I'd love to see Rohan Dennis take it out, hard to look past Dumoulin

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Re: 2018 WRRC - who's gonna win ?

Postby MichaelB » Sat Sep 22, 2018 12:46 pm

Porte has withdrawn !!

Got respiratory illness in last week of Vuelta, so he’s out. Partly explains his invisibility.

Maybe Haig’s or Clarke’s chance ?

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Re: 2018 WRRC - who's gonna win ?

Postby lone rider » Sun Sep 23, 2018 11:18 am

Porte's bad luck strikes again? Nah sorry Richie, you are too obsessed with being a stick figure and don't eat properly. It's a good thing for Aus because he had no chance of winning on this course. The main climb is not that hard, a lot of flat sections, a few ramps near 10% but not really in good spots for attacks to the finish, and the last 1k flattens off. It will be won on the last climb which should suit JA and MK types. If GVA can win on the Rio course I wouldn't be shocked to see something similar happen here.

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Re: 2018 WRRC - who's gonna win ?

Postby find_bruce » Sun Sep 23, 2018 12:02 pm

lone rider wrote:The main climb is not that hard, a lot of flat sections, a few ramps near 10% but not really in good spots for attacks to the finish, and the last 1k flattens off. It will be won on the last climb which should suit JA and MK types. If GVA can win on the Rio course I wouldn't be shocked to see something similar happen here.

Where abouts are these flat sections ?
Image
As I read the course, the intention of the course designers is that the Gnadenwald followed by 7 times over the Igls, (6 laps of 24 k, roughly 7 k up, 7 k down & 10k through the valley) will soften the legs before having to go up the steep ramps of the Gramartboden. While I agree with you that its unlikely to be a successful early attack to the finish, it will be about who remains freshest at the foot of the final climb.

Any country with pretensions of winning should be working hard to make sure GVA & Sagan are dropped before the final climb

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Re: 2018 WRRC - who's gonna win ?

Postby foo on patrol » Sun Sep 23, 2018 1:15 pm

lone rider wrote:Porte's bad luck strikes again? Nah sorry Richie, you are too obsessed with being a stick figure and don't eat properly. It's a good thing for Aus because he had no chance of winning on this course. The main climb is not that hard, a lot of flat sections, a few ramps near 10% but not really in good spots for attacks to the finish, and the last 1k flattens off. It will be won on the last climb which should suit JA and MK types. If GVA can win on the Rio course I wouldn't be shocked to see something similar happen here.


Of course you do know that when people are extremely, their immune system goes to chit? :wink:

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Re: 2018 WRRC - who's gonna win ?

Postby lone rider » Sun Sep 23, 2018 8:00 pm

find_bruce wrote:
lone rider wrote:The main climb is not that hard, a lot of flat sections, a few ramps near 10% but not really in good spots for attacks to the finish, and the last 1k flattens off. It will be won on the last climb which should suit JA and MK types. If GVA can win on the Rio course I wouldn't be shocked to see something similar happen here.

Where abouts are these flat sections ?


Its wavey in gradient rather than consistent climbing, the average gradient doesn't show it properly.

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Re: 2018 WRRC - who's gonna win ?

Postby lone rider » Sun Sep 23, 2018 8:01 pm

foo on patrol wrote:
lone rider wrote:Porte's bad luck strikes again? Nah sorry Richie, you are too obsessed with being a stick figure and don't eat properly. It's a good thing for Aus because he had no chance of winning on this course. The main climb is not that hard, a lot of flat sections, a few ramps near 10% but not really in good spots for attacks to the finish, and the last 1k flattens off. It will be won on the last climb which should suit JA and MK types. If GVA can win on the Rio course I wouldn't be shocked to see something similar happen here.


Of course you do know that when people are extremely, their immune system goes to chit? :wink:

Foo


Some seem able to manage it a lot better than little Richie.

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Re: 2018 WRRC - who's gonna win ?

Postby fat and old » Mon Sep 24, 2018 7:49 am

Derny Driver wrote:My picks, in order...
1. Alaphillipe
2. Kwiatkovski
3. Sagan
4. Valverde
5. Roglic


I'd swap Valverde and Kwiatkowski, and give Sagan a 1 or nothing possie. That's assuming that there's not another Spaniard close in the last 1,000m otherwise they'll probably race each other and come 10th and 11th :lol:

Uran, as usual my wild card although I'll put GVA in as well.....his win in Rio can't be overlooked and he should be fresh

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Re: 2018 WRRC - who's gonna win ?

Postby MichaelB » Mon Sep 24, 2018 8:42 am

There is a whole host of potential winners, and it will be interesting to see who uses what tactics (go hard or wait), and I'm liking some of the picks - I'd be very happy with Alaphillipe winning, as he's an exciting racer, young and part of the new guard. Others I'd be happy with - GvA (possible), Haig (unlikely), Mas (excitable), Bernal (only to see how Sky would handle it and drop Froome), Roglic (great team and would really use it) just to name a few

For a different twist, here is a list of theose I don't want to win, as they , imho, don't deserve it ;
1. Moscon - doesn't understand the way the world works.
2. Piti - talented, but unrepentant doper.
3. Kwiatovski - talented and past winner, but who wants a WC that is a domestique (and brilliant at that)
4. Quintana - Just doesn't inspire me
5. Uran - doesn't have the team and future to use it

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Re: 2018 WRRC - who's gonna win ?

Postby find_bruce » Mon Sep 24, 2018 8:55 am

I thought that Bernal was still injured & isn't starting

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Re: 2018 WRRC - who's gonna win ?

Postby caneye » Mon Sep 24, 2018 9:12 am

will michael matthews be replacing porte?

yah .. pretty sure bernal hasn't trained since his bad fall.

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Re: 2018 WRRC - who's gonna win ?

Postby find_bruce » Mon Sep 24, 2018 2:33 pm

caneye wrote:will michael matthews be replacing porte?
Nope, bing is still on the outer, at least for this course. Its not like he has been in contention on 1 day classics with tough climbs like Amstel gold, Leige, La Flèche Wallonne :roll:

Porte replaced by Nick Schultz. If like me you go Nick who, apparently he has spent 2 years at a spanish pro-conti team but in August signed a 2 year deal with Mitchelton-Scott. Apparently he was at the Vuelta, where he was more anonymous than a wrong number

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