Can Cadel Win?

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Can Cadel Win?

Postby proud_2_be_australian » Fri Jul 27, 2007 8:38 pm

Was looking for peoples opinions on whether or not Cadel can take the Yellow Jersy in the time trial. Is Contador a good Time trialist or did the first TT suit him. Can Cadel beat hime by the 2 minutes he needs?
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by BNA » Fri Jul 27, 2007 9:15 pm

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Postby Bnej » Fri Jul 27, 2007 9:15 pm

It's possible. Hope he does. I think Cadel is a bit bigger and ought to do better on the flat.
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Postby sogood » Fri Jul 27, 2007 9:45 pm

Is he 2mins better than Contador? Is Leipheimer 1min better than him?
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Postby Hotdog » Sat Jul 28, 2007 12:35 am

Anything is possible, even if none of them crash. What would be really exciting is if the result of the TT leaves Contador/Evans/Leipheimer within a few seconds of each other, in which case they'll be fighting over the intermediate sprint time bonuses in Paris on Sunday.
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Postby europa » Sat Jul 28, 2007 12:47 am

Hotdog wrote:Anything is possible, even if none of them crash. What would be really exciting is if the result of the TT leaves Contador/Evans/Leipheimer within a few seconds of each other, in which case they'll be fighting over the intermediate sprint time bonuses in Paris on Sunday.


My son has already expounded this scenario.

Apparently the tour was decided on the Champs Unspellable one year - not sure of the story or the year though.

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Postby uMP2k » Sat Jul 28, 2007 11:38 am

europa wrote:
Hotdog wrote:Anything is possible, even if none of them crash. What would be really exciting is if the result of the TT leaves Contador/Evans/Leipheimer within a few seconds of each other, in which case they'll be fighting over the intermediate sprint time bonuses in Paris on Sunday.


My son has already expounded this scenario.

Apparently the tour was decided on the Champs Unspellable one year - not sure of the story or the year though.

Richard


1989 - LeMond by 8 seconds!

Here is an extract from the Wikipedia:

Heading into the final stage, however, an individual time trial finishing in Paris, LeMond was in second place overall. He was 50 seconds behind Laurent Fignon, who had won the Tour in 1983 and 1984. LeMond rode the time trial using then-novel aero bars, which gave him a significant aerodynamic advantage, to beat Fignon by 58 seconds to claim his second yellow jersey with a final victory margin of 8 seconds – the closest in the Tour's history.
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Postby europa » Sat Jul 28, 2007 11:42 am

Hmm, an individual time trial. Not quite the same scenario, but by cripes it would have been exciting.

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Postby Mulger bill » Sun Jul 29, 2007 2:32 pm

Isn't the final stage usually just a cruise home sort of thing with no attacks?
If so, isn't Cadel done?

I gotta work tonight, no frickin TV :roll:
Recommended web coverage, anyone?

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Postby sogood » Sun Jul 29, 2007 3:05 pm

But can Cadel attack? His PRL team members better help out this time. The stage is flat.
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Postby AUbicycles » Tue Jul 31, 2007 6:30 am

Mulger bill wrote:Isn't the final stage usually just a cruise home sort of thing with no attacks?
If so, isn't Cadel done?


Can you tell me more about this, I know that this is the tradition that the tour leader at the penultimat stage doesn't get chased down and basically wins... but with 23 seconds behind... and also the final result 23seconds behind do the second and third place riders have no option (if all runs according to plan... no crashes etc).
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Postby Mulger bill » Tue Jul 31, 2007 11:51 pm

I've got a lot to learn about road racing so I prolly shouldn't comment on the esoterics, but... IMHO anything less than 60sec should mean a race thru Paris, not a procession.

2c

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Postby europa » Wed Aug 01, 2007 12:09 am

Depends on whether you can make it stick Shaun. Any break away with Cadel in it would have been chased down by Disco. The Champs Elysee is a great honour for any winner, so all the sprinter's teams are busy setting up a finish. In reality, anyone making a break away is fighting the entire peleton, not just one team.

Disappointing as it may be, I think Cadel made a smart move bowing to tradition.

However, I wonder what would have happened had a genuine opportunity to attack presented itself. I can't imagine the circumstances, but it's that lack of imagination that seperates the group from the champions.

I spent many years being frustrated by the lack of action on the last day. Now though, I can see the futility of such an attack except in exceptional circumstances. In reality, the only way the organisers can change that is to manufacture the final stage into an event ... but really, who gives a stuff about what happens on the open road? That final sprint is the finale to the race. In recent times, it has seen the Green jersey change shoulders. Even without that, that final stage is a sprinter's stage. The Tour is a race of many faces. Although it would be nice to see the yellow decided that day, I've come to enjoy the comraderie of the final day, followed by the cut and thrust of the final criterium in Paris, not to mention that final sprint. The sprinters don't get a real look in with this race (they'll never hold yellow), so maybe it's appropriate that the final spectacle should go to them.

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Postby Mulger bill » Wed Aug 01, 2007 12:39 am

Now that you put it like that Richard. Fair call to give the fast men some glory in Paris.

I'm sold, till next year at least :twisted:

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