Australian Cycling Forums - Bicycles Network Australia

nickobec wrote: I will avoid picking riders just for the ITT, I will use my remaining transfers to get in sprinters for Friday night's stage (leaving in competent ITTs for Saturday), then add 3 more sprinters for Sunday.

Almost the same for me too, although I am considering adding Cancellara, but otherwise just leaving good GC's in and those who have a reason to perform well.

bella26 wrote:Bonus stage coming up and with 1 transfer remaining I'm tossing up whether I leave the team how it is - stacked with GC riders or whether I trade one of the GC guys out and put Thor back in - given I'm fairly confident he could retain the green....

cherrycam wrote:You need to compare the five points I assume he will get on the next stage to who you can replace him with - ie who will finish in the top 17. Otherwise trade him (or someone else) in for the next stage. I am pretty confident that Thor wont finish in the top 20 next stage! Wiggins would be the one to trade out but that doesn't give you enough dosh.

Will your GC guy finish 17th or better, if so hang onto him for the finish on Tourmalet, if not kick him off and replace him with Thor, or wait till Friday and pick the winner of the sprint into Bordeaux, if Pettachi wins and beat Thor by a couple of places, he will get the green bonus and green jersey points in the ITT next day.

My strategy looks to be a fail - the Sprinter/Transfers Strategy. I was gambling on:

GC Competitors failing to meet expectation - which worked,
GC Competitors in past TDF have often just finished in the bunch not contesting every mountain stage AND that there would be more successful breakaways in the mountains,
That I would have two transfer advantages that I could take advantage of to get more sprinters into my team, and that they would neuralise the effect of not having any points for the GC at the end,

I still have 6 transfers to make before the end but it won't be enough. I would really need to be in the lead by a clear margin to have a hope. Won't even get a Rabo kit.

Next year eh.

ft_critical wrote:My strategy looks to be a fail - the Sprinter/Transfers Strategy. I was gambling on:

GC Competitors failing to meet expectation - which worked,
GC Competitors in past TDF have often just finished in the bunch not contesting every mountain stage AND that there would be more successful breakaways in the mountains,
That I would have two transfer advantages that I could take advantage of to get more sprinters into my team, and that they would neuralise the effect of not having any points for the GC at the end,

I still have 6 transfers to make before the end but it won't be enough. I would really need to be in the lead by a clear margin to have a hope. Won't even get a Rabo kit.

Next year eh.

Notwithstanding that, I think you are onto something. The trick is finding the balance. Both this year and last year the highest points scorers have been sprinters - they care about their finishing position, while GC riders just care about the time. But the top GC riders do get good points and usually accumulate a total that puts them around fourth or fifth overall. You are better off having Contador rather than, say, Mondory or Freire.

The biggest problem with any strategy is the absence of a crystal ball. Just for interest I might try to work out what the highest possible score is if you knew the results ahead of time. Problem is the budget and transfer constraint makes it a non-trivial problem and I've usually got better ways to waste my time.

My question is do I wan't Wiggo or Martin for the ITT. Interesting that Wiggo said that Fabio looked like death on legs. Saxo and Astana have been smashing their teams. Cherry has a nice looking set for the ITT. Levi is a good combo pick.

ft_critical wrote:My question is do I wan't Wiggo or Martin for the ITT. Interesting that Wiggo said that Fabio looked like death on legs. Saxo and Astana have been smashing their teams. Cherry has a nice looking set for the ITT. Levi is a good combo pick.

I made my choice before the mountains when I took Wiggo over Thor. I am now regretting that decision.

But the better question is - given the transfer constraint - who will finish higher, Martin in the ITT or Petacchi on the Champs-Elysee?

jasimon wrote:

ft_critical wrote:My question is do I wan't Wiggo or Martin for the ITT. Interesting that Wiggo said that Fabio looked like death on legs. Saxo and Astana have been smashing their teams. Cherry has a nice looking set for the ITT. Levi is a good combo pick.

I made my choice before the mountains when I took Wiggo over Thor. I am now regretting that decision.

But the better question is - given the transfer constraint - who will finish higher, Martin in the ITT or Petacchi on the Champs-Elysee?

I plan to have both.

Anyone think that Gesink or van den Broeck are likely to place in the ITT?

Just trying to work out whether to leave them in for the ITT and put a sprinter on the Champs Elysee or swap them for a TT specialist like Fabian (who won't place on the Champs-Elysee).

ok, i may have stuffed up my whole fantasy team...

I won't get a chance to do my transfers tomorrow so i went ahead and threw in some sprinters and got rid of the hill climbers whilst tonight's stage is going ahead. I can't find any documentation regarding what happens to the points of your recently transferred rider.

Will i get points for tonight's stage for a hill climber even though i have transferred him out of the team after the transfer deadline?

cheers!

Strawburger wrote:Will i get points for tonight's stage for a hill climber even though i have transferred him out of the team after the transfer deadline?

Yes.

I've already done it earlier in this competition because I was going away for a few days when I needed to make some transfers.

jasimon wrote:

Strawburger wrote:Will i get points for tonight's stage for a hill climber even though i have transferred him out of the team after the transfer deadline?

Yes.

I've already done it earlier in this competition because I was going away for a few days when I needed to make some transfers.

Yippee! thanks for the quick reply.

ft_critical wrote: Levi is a good combo pick.

It looked like a good idea but would have scored more points leaving Hushovd in, and then had two extra sprinters for tonight. There are no guarantees he will place in top 20 ITT anyway. Just now hope that Schlek doesn't pull out a really good TT.

jasimon wrote:The biggest problem with any strategy is the absence of a crystal ball.

Couldn't agree more. You need a good strategy, some ability to pick form of riders and an awful lot of luck.

I missed my chance to transfer during the day and get more sprinters in. Still, I reckon Brass Monkeys did pretty well for not transferring anyone in or out. I'm happy.

Jim

Well, the game is over - no more decisions to make, just the last stage to play out. If the stars align I might get to 3rd, but more likely 4th. I thought I might put down some thoughts on strategy. Partly for my benefit if this runs again next year and also to see what everyone else thought up.

1. Bonus stages: Don't pick stage 1 for a bonus stage. All the riders are too nervous and anything could happen. But, pick a stage that requires a similar roster to those around it. The problem with having the stage 19 time trial as a bonus stage is that you sacrifice the sprint stages either before or after it so, on net, you end up with about the same points. The sprint or mountain stages make for better rosters. And the sprint stages tend to be more predictable because there are rarely breakaways and all the sprinters try to the very end because they care about their position not just their time. The GC guys only go hard on a few of the mountain stages and let breakaways happen on the others - but it can be difficult to pick which ones ahead of time.

2. Picking the GC at the beginning is difficult and tends to be all or nothing. This happens because once a contender drops down a little, they tend to drop down a lot deliberately so they can have a shot at a stage victory. Betting odds are not a good indicator of likely GC finishing position here either.

3. Sprinters score more points than GC guys. The top five points scorers this year are all sprinters.

4. [Your thoughts here]

1. Almost agree, I would pick a sprinting stage, Mountain top finishes can be more unpredictable, Tourmalet + Morzine-Avoriaz this year were predictable. Alp d'Heuz last year or Station des Rousses at the top of cat 2 this year less so. You also need a couple transfers just in case things go wrong or to pick the form rider (ie transfer Farrar out and Pettachi and/or McEwen in after stage 2/3/4) before your

2. GC is all or nothing, 1st and 2nd predictable last couple of years, but the rest of the top 12 is a good predicting/guessing game (all mine are in 21st-32nd position or at home with broken bones) if 3 of them finished in top 12 and extra 100 to 120 points

3. Not when you add in GC points, top GC contenders score as much as top sprinters.

Like most things, it is really hard to pull out the luck element of these things.

I think I will go with a simliar strategy next year, but as Nick suggests, pick the two or three GC guys you know will be there (save acts of god, injury, illness, crashing... ) and swap them out day one.

Made it to the top ten in the world today, and will likely move up tomorrow, then down a lot when the GC points are given out. A bit like a second rate fantasy TDF lead-out man. You can't headbutt anyone in fantasy TDF though unfortunately so that is as far as I will get.

nickobec wrote:2. GC is all or nothing, 1st and 2nd predictable last couple of years, but the rest of the top 12 is a ...
3. Not when you add in GC points, top GC contenders score as much as top sprinters.

I think the combination of 2 and 3 means that the bias must be towards sprinters. You are better off not loading your initial roster up with lots of GC riders but just going with the top 3 or 4 then the rest sprinters so that on stage 1 you can have a full sprint roster. So, next year, it might be a case of putting in Contador and A Schleck then the rest sprinters. Make 3 transfers for stage 1 and then a few more once the sprinters' form shows out. I think ft_critical's strategy showed great dividends; if there were just 100 GC points from Schleck and Contador in the initial roster, it would be a winner.

What you needed was to select as your starting/GC lineup

Alberto Contador
Andy Schleck
Samuel Sanchez
Denis Menchov
Jurgen Van den Broeck
Jose Rojas
Thor Hushovd
Gerald Ciolek
Lloyd Mondory
Team Lampre or Garmin

swap out the 1st five for
Mark Cavendish
Robbie McEwen
Edvald Boasson Hagen
Alessandro Petacchi
Sebastien Turgot
before stage 1

before stage 7
swao those five for
Alberto Contador
Andy Schleck
Samuel Sanchez
Denis Menchov
Jurgen Van den Broeck

before stage 18
reverse it again, bring in
Mark Cavendish
Robbie McEwen
Edvald Boasson Hagen
Alessandro Petacchi
Sebastien Turgot

and have stage 20 as you bonus stage

no idea what the score you would get, time to go figure that out

Wish they would hurry up and fix up the points, I am 8th after the Champs, but not with the allocation of GC.
My points balance is telling me I have 1800 point and finished 20th 102 points behind the actual comp winner. 102 points, damn, 50 of those were me stuffing up a transfer at the start.

Then again, I don't believe it. I think I finished much lower down.

ft_critical wrote:Wish they would hurry up and fix up the points, I am 8th after the Champs, but not with the allocation of GC.
My points balance is telling me I have 1800 point and finished 20th 102 points behind the actual comp winner. 102 points, damn, 50 of those were me stuffing up a transfer at the start.

Then again, I don't believe it. I think I finished much lower down.

About half of the teams seem to have been allocated GC points and the rest not. At the moment it is telling me I'm 50th with 1755 - and I've got my GC points. But I can also see that a few others in the mini-league have definitely not gotten their GC points which will certainly push me (and you) down the rankings.

The ITT was not ideal for the bonus stage. Still happy with the score of 1758. Not sure what position that puts me in. One page says 434th and another says 50ish.

The best news though is I just got my first new bike in 23 years. Taking a day off to pick it up Friday and going to ride it home. Keep in mind the onset of children has kept me from riding for a while. Now they are old enough and have flash new bikes themselves. Exciting times.

Trek 4300 disc for the record.

Team HTFU managed to crack the top 10 and came in at 8th place. I'm pretty happy with that given I stuffed up a couple of transfers and had picked riders in my original team who weren't even on the start list. Bodes well for a good placing next year - maybe top 5