This year I'm mixing logic with sentiment, but since my "logic" is based on simple ignorance, it won't really matter anyway.
GC
1- Cadel; the course suits him with good TTs and steep climbs, and he's been there before. And he's always been a fave, partly for the same reasons some in the peleton don't like him (i.e. he'd rather be seen with a book, a glass of wine and classical music rather than an Wii and a beer.) And despite all the talk about Wiggo's form, at the end of the Criterium the margin was just the same as last year, the vast majority of the deficit was in one section of the TT, and Cadel was attacking uphill at times (apparently he was also struggling at other times, but since I didn't see them I'll ignore them!
)2- Wiggins: He has been screaming all year, but in my other sport the amazing Brit Olympic success seems to be largely based on peaking (which IMHO shows that Poms can do it without the aids some claim they use) and Sky aren't peaking, so he has to collapse. There's some more logic than that too, but not much more.
3- Sammy: Good at everything, including descents, and perhaps less concerned about the following Olympics than some. And dammit, he deserved to be on the podium in 2010.
Green Jersey
1- The mind says that the hills in some stages make it a Sagan/Goss/Cav/battle; the heart's vote gives the battle to OGE.
Polka dots
1- Rolland or Mouncoots; apparently it will be his last year and Millar says Mouncoots didn't dope when many others were, so I hope he gets to out in a blaze of glory.
Stages:
Being patriotic - Goss will win at least 1. The Gorilla will take another, Sagan some, Cav of course. I always hope the French can get one or two; Voeckler will get one, and Chavanel will be in there with a chance. Hoogerland deserves one. Frank will get one. HH and SG and MA as well, of course. Can I add another 150 names here?
BMC as a team worry me slightly v Sky, but then again they should be all for Cadel almost all of the time. And without the worry about Andy attacking uphill, CE can plan attacks on BW. And even before the interview with Mr Jayco came out, it seemed that if OGE wanted to cement the home market appeal, they'd be willing to help Cadel go for GC just like Samu helps AC, and just as AC did for his countryman in the Vuelta. If Cadel is going for a repeat, an Aussie-based team would consider helping him if they can just for the publicity.
So what does everyone else think?
