2018 TdF route

fat and old
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Re: 2018 TdF route

Postby fat and old » Fri Jun 29, 2018 7:05 am

find_bruce wrote:
fat and old wrote:
biker jk wrote:
Your Spanish speakers are 30, 40 and 66 to 1 for the win, respectively.

I don't understand why the bookies have Porte at second favourite. Surely Nibali and Bardet are more likely to do better than Porte.


You're being rorted. Bet 365 has them at 23, 41 and 18 respectively 8) Porte is 2nd at 4.50 then Quintana at 8.00

I reckon 20 bucks on Bernal each way for $1,040.00 is pretty good.

You might want to check your maths as to who is being rorted F&O - last time I checked it was much better for a punter to put their money where the odds were longer.

As for why Porte is 2nd favourite, while bookies set the initial market, they then follow the bets to try & keep a balanced book - more money on 1 nag rider means the odds get shorter, if few people back that rider, the odds go out. If Porte's odds don't go out, its because people are backing him at those odds. You already know what I think of those people


Yeah...this is why my sole bet in my entire life was 5c in a Canberra pokie in 1982 :lol:

I still reckon Bernal is worth 20 bucks. :D Something tells me he's Sky's new Froomay Vuelta '11/Wiggins TDF '12, and they won't make that mistake again

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MichaelB
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Re: 2018 TdF route

Postby MichaelB » Fri Jun 29, 2018 9:14 am

Froome is again insisting it's his right to race at the TdF, and he is correct, but what I find REALLY puzzling is the insistence that he "has done nothing wrong".

This goes back to vosadrians post is that he obviously fully believes that he took the legal dose and somehow recorded twice the level of salbutamol. This then lends weight to their path to exoneration is to discredit the testing methodology and introduce doubt to either be found not guilty or to at least minimise any punishment (suspension/stripping of victories).

This is where (along with all of the other stuff in the background) that is the issue that I believe that Froome is not innocent and/or took more than allowed. It's been covered by many others before that are more knowledgeable than me.

My hope is that he doesn't have undue influence on the race only to have it taken away later.

It's a crappy situation, and one that I hope leads to a change.

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MichaelB
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Re: Meanwhile, back to the 2018 TdF route

Postby MichaelB » Fri Jun 29, 2018 9:21 am

Sharkey wrote:
Thoglette wrote:Any one seen any more news about Stage 19?


No, I can't find any more news on that.

The Roadbook is out though and can be downloaded here: Veloroons Google Drive


Ta :mrgreen:

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Re: 2018 TdF route

Postby vosadrian » Fri Jun 29, 2018 9:27 am

A few weeks ago Froome was hinting that there was something about his case he could not reveal but that people would understand when it was revealed. I can only imagine that their defence may be different to what we think. Perhaps they will claim the positive test samples are not his. If they have evidence of that and fully believe he did nothing wrong, then I think most people would understand that him continuing to race rather than pull out to satisfy others who don't know what is going on.

I think it is worth considering the possibility that he is not trying to prove his output of the substance is within "his" normal output for the the intake allowance. Perhaps they are trying to prove that an intentional or unintentional error has been made in the sample collection. He certainly seems to believe he did not take above the allowed amount.... and I find it hard to believe he intentionally took too much knowing he would be thrown into this mess he is now in.
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Re: 2018 TdF route

Postby redsonic » Fri Jun 29, 2018 9:56 am

For those who are new to the TDF, or just want a summary of which Australians are starting, the ABC News site has a good, basic article.

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Re: 2018 TdF route

Postby fat and old » Fri Jun 29, 2018 11:46 am

MichaelB wrote:Froome is again insisting it's his right to race at the TdF, and he is correct, but what I find REALLY puzzling is the insistence that he "has done nothing wrong".

This goes back to vosadrians post is that he obviously fully believes that he took the legal dose and somehow recorded twice the level of salbutamol. This then lends weight to their path to exoneration is to discredit the testing methodology and introduce doubt to either be found not guilty or to at least minimise any punishment (suspension/stripping of victories).

This is where (along with all of the other stuff in the background) that is the issue that I believe that Froome is not innocent and/or took more than allowed. It's been covered by many others before that are more knowledgeable than me.

My hope is that he doesn't have undue influence on the race only to have it taken away later.

It's a crappy situation, and one that I hope leads to a change.


Discrediting the testing meth, claiming it was someone else's; these are all old ones that just don't wash. If he gets off any sanction due to those it's not exoneration in my eyes.

Sky crushed all comers in the Dauphine TTT. They have what....4 National TT Champions in their TDF squad? They smash out a TTT, gain maybe 30 seconds (at least) on rivals pre-cobbles, then hold on and recover if need be in St. 20. Doumalin is good, Froomay is better in the hills. Movistar's climbers have no chance, unless they go long range in the hills.....and Froomay's already shown he can do that too. Nibali can descend....Froomay's shown he'll do that too. Porte can get crook, real quick. Haven't seen Froomay do that since his '11 Giro. Nobody else has a team as strong as Sky......they could afford to gift Contador the Angliru last year knowing they had the win. No one else seems to pull a rabbit out of the hat and do something different other than Froomay.

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Re: 2018 TdF route

Postby Cyclophiliac » Fri Jun 29, 2018 12:29 pm

As usual, news coverage of one of the toughest and highest-profile sports events in the world is very limited in Australia.
The Guardian has a few articles over the last few weeks, Melbourne's 2 main news sites The Age and The Herald Sun have nothing (or at least I couldn't find anything). Only news.com.au seems to have a cycling section with various TdF related articles in it.

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Re: 2018 TdF route

Postby andrewjcw » Fri Jun 29, 2018 12:38 pm

I duno what you expect, it doesn't start for another week. Honestly there's probably less enthusiasm to cover sporting events now than ever (outside of the really big mass appeal ones that the avg joe gets excited about once every four years) because all the fans will just go to sites/youtube channels/subreddits that have the best coverage of them. Nowadays if people are interested in stuff they go watch/read about it, they don't need to march along to what the big news places/tv channels do.

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Re: 2018 TdF route

Postby Thoglette » Fri Jun 29, 2018 1:23 pm

andrewjcw wrote: Honestly there's probably less enthusiasm to cover sporting events now than ever (outside of the really big mass appeal ones


Yup, local rag has six pages on .au "footie" and two on the horses (plus a 12 page lift out betting guide). Between those there's one spread where everything else goes.
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MichaelB
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Re: 2018 TdF route

Postby MichaelB » Fri Jun 29, 2018 2:34 pm

vosadrian wrote:A few weeks ago Froome was hinting that there was something about his case he could not reveal .....


They actually haven’t revealed anything.

It seems you are hinting at conspiracy theories, but find that option pretty unrealistic.

I’m yet to see/hear/read anything that even gets remotely close to providing even an inkling of Froome innocence.

If it was this simple, why does it take 9+ months and a reported 1,500 pages to show that ....

Ducks. Quack. Waddle.

Q.E.D.

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Re: 2018 TdF route

Postby vosadrian » Fri Jun 29, 2018 3:40 pm

MichaelB wrote:
vosadrian wrote:A few weeks ago Froome was hinting that there was something about his case he could not reveal .....


They actually haven’t revealed anything.

It seems you are hinting at conspiracy theories, but find that option pretty unrealistic.

I’m yet to see/hear/read anything that even gets remotely close to providing even an inkling of Froome innocence.

If it was this simple, why does it take 9+ months and a reported 1,500 pages to show that ....

Ducks. Quack. Waddle.

Q.E.D.


No... all I am saying is that the defensive concept may not be what people here are expecting. I wish I remember where I read it, but it was a quote from Froome along the lines of "When people find out more information they will understand why he is continuing to compete". I took that to mean that perhaps things are not as they seem and other unknowns may be in play. I don't know what. Conspiracy is as plausible as anything else.

Oh... and it makes perfect sense for them to not reveal anything. Anything they release will be pulled to bits, so best off for them to keep it quiet and just meet requirements of their submission without letting the media in on the act.
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Re: 2018 TdF route

Postby AUbicycles » Fri Jun 29, 2018 5:43 pm

vosadrian wrote:a quote from Froome along the lines of "When people find out more information they will understand why he is continuing to compete"


Publishing anything to the effect could also just be strategy as well to quell opposition


vosadrian wrote:Anything they release will be pulled to bits, so best off for them to keep it quiet and just meet requirements of their submission without letting the media in on the act.


Yes - because a lot of stuff and arguments that hasn't been released but was rumoured or leaked is also being put under the microscope.

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Re: 2018 TdF route

Postby MichaelB » Sun Jul 01, 2018 9:24 am

At the end of the day, as much as I don’t want Froome racing, I sincerely hope the crowd behaves with some decorum and we don’t see a repeat of scenes from a previous year, but I fear that the idiots will do some unpleasant things on the roadside.

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Re: 2018 TdF route

Postby biker jk » Sun Jul 01, 2018 9:01 pm


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Re: 2018 TdF route

Postby Red Rider » Sun Jul 01, 2018 9:58 pm

This is the right decision in the circumstances, hopefully it stands.

More importantly it highlights the shortcomings of the UCI rules around this.

What if at the end of all this Froome proves his innocence and was unable to defend his tour title?

Absolute mess for the sport.

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Re: 2018 TdF route

Postby AUbicycles » Mon Jul 02, 2018 5:13 am

It’s not about being innocent as the test results are confirmed... but if he can convinced them that there is some kind system failure.

So if at the end he is cleared.. the whole team will feel silly about the innecessary delays as their actions are not about a speedy resolution.

Pretty active discussion on this in the PED thread bug in my own case, with the participation of Froome under these circumstances, the (broken) system us complicite so this is a move to at least remove that element and create fairer competition. It is specifically about Froome because Contador doesn’t rate well for me either... but moving towards clean competition is crucial.

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Re: 2018 TdF route

Postby fat and old » Mon Jul 02, 2018 7:18 am

This is BS.....now it'll go appeal and counter appeal all the way to the start. Boonen already proved who'll win.

Edit...if you're a Euro. TBH, it will be interesting to see if Froomay holds the same cache as Tom or Astana

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Re: 2018 TdF route

Postby biker jk » Mon Jul 02, 2018 7:51 am

fat and old wrote:This is BS.....now it'll go appeal and counter appeal all the way to the start. Boonen already proved who'll win.

Edit...if you're a Euro. TBH, it will be interesting to see if Froomay holds the same cache as Tom or Astana


Boonen won because he was initially invited then disinvited by the ASO. Also, in terms of reputational damage to the TdF Froome is a much bigger risk than Boonen. Finally, don't forget that ASO excluded Astana in 2008.

I believe that ASO made their decision so late because of Team Sky's delay in submitting their team roster. Sky have unethically used delaying tactics in Froome's AAF from the start.

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Re: 2018 TdF route

Postby heay » Mon Jul 02, 2018 8:23 am

fat and old wrote:This is BS.....now it'll go appeal and counter appeal all the way to the start. Boonen already proved who'll win.

Edit...if you're a Euro. TBH, it will be interesting to see if Froomay holds the same cache as Tom or Astana



They are holding an appeal tomorrow and if he doesn't get cleared to race they will make an appeal to CAS but that WILL NOT happen before the race start. So what ever decision is handed down tomorrow will stand.

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Re: 2018 TdF route

Postby find_bruce » Mon Jul 02, 2018 9:17 am

fat and old wrote:This is BS.....now it'll go appeal and counter appeal all the way to the start. Boonen already proved who'll win.

Edit...if you're a Euro. TBH, it will be interesting to see if Froomay holds the same cache as Tom or Astana

You could also argue that ASO proved in 2008 they have every right to not invite whoever they like. My money is on the National Olympic Committee of French Sport deciding in favour of ASO on Wednesday & the CAS not making a decision before Sunday. What people are missing about Boonen is that his cocaine use out of comeptition was not a breach of the then anti-doping code. What I think will sway the day is that Froome, unlike Boonen, has an obligation to prove an innocent explanation and has not yet done so.

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Re: 2018 TdF route

Postby MichaelB » Mon Jul 02, 2018 10:39 am

I’m with ASO in this case.

However, by banning him (or trying to) the downside is that it brings negative publicity and would potentially scare away future sponsors and maybe bring down other teams as well.

It’s a no-win situation all round.

Having said that, if it ultimately makes a difference to the rules, then I’m in favour

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Re: 2018 TdF route

Postby fat and old » Mon Jul 02, 2018 10:44 am

biker jk wrote: Sky have unethically used delaying tactics in Froome's AAF from the start.


As have ASO in uninviting him late enough to avoid a CAS decision. They could have done this months ago to force a decision, but knowing that Froomay would immediately appeal the uninvitation they held off.

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Re: 2018 TdF route

Postby Sharkey » Mon Jul 02, 2018 10:48 am

Didn't ASO uninvite lots of riders and even whole teams pretty closse to the 2006 TDF as a result of Operation Puerto?

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Re: 2018 TdF route

Postby fat and old » Mon Jul 02, 2018 10:52 am

Astana, in 2008 as Biker points out. What he missed is that Astana won the right to compete in CAS but withdrew as 5 or 6 of their blokes were facing doping charges :lol: Virenque's team TVM as well over drugs, I think late 90's?

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Re: 2018 TdF route

Postby biker jk » Mon Jul 02, 2018 11:08 am

fat and old wrote:
biker jk wrote: Sky have unethically used delaying tactics in Froome's AAF from the start.


As have ASO in uninviting him late enough to avoid a CAS decision. They could have done this months ago to force a decision, but knowing that Froomay would immediately appeal the uninvitation they held off.


You didn't read what I wrote earlier. ASO could not uninvite Froome earlier because they didn't have the Sky team roster then. How could they uninvite Froome months ago when ASO didn't have a confirmed entry?

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