Pravda wrote:Ratcheting up the pace in the last lap or so would seem like better use of your energy than trying to ride off the front with a few laps to go.
Ratcheting up the pace in the last lap has a higher probability of towing strong sprinters to the last 150 metres in a fresher state.
There's also more randomness in the last lap and bunch sprint - you can get blocked by front and side riders, others can veer dangerously, etc.
A strong endurance/weak sprint rider will rarely win in a bunch sprint.
He has a higher probability of winning by making a break stick. Whether that requires a 3,5,7,10, 20 minute break with 1,2,3,4 guys is partial to systematic inductive investigation, the scientific method.