Estimating time

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Estimating time

Postby TomBikes » Mon Dec 10, 2012 9:48 pm

Hi everyone,

I just have one quick question in regards to time it takes to ride.
I know that the best way for me to figure out how long it takes me to travel X kms is to ride a bit and get a feel for my pace. But as i am new, to the whole riding thing i am curious as to how long it would take me to ride 10km.

I have a planned route of 10.5km which is 95% bike path. I will be riding a cyclocross bike (not that it matters that much i think) and i want to ride at a steady pace which doesn't make me sweat hugely as a still need to be presentable :)

I am a rower so my fitness is pretty good and I have done a fair bit of running and hiking.

So, BNA, how long do you think it would take me to ride 10km on a fairly flat bike path (capital city trail) at a moderate pace?

If im asking too much i understand as this is a fairly iffy question.

Thanks!
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by BNA » Mon Dec 10, 2012 9:51 pm

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Re: Estimating time

Postby bychosis » Mon Dec 10, 2012 9:51 pm

My guess: cyclocross bike, easy pace, flat path should get 25km/h.
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Re: Estimating time

Postby Mulger bill » Mon Dec 10, 2012 10:05 pm

In Melbs? I can normally hold 25-27 km/h without overheating on that trail and I'm not particularly fast. You'll have to travel less than that at times of course, there's a few blind corners.
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Re: Estimating time

Postby mitzikatzi » Mon Dec 10, 2012 10:19 pm

TomBikes wrote:..snip...

So, BNA, how long do you think it would take me to ride 10km on a fairly flat bike path (capital city trail) at a moderate pace?

If im asking too much i understand as this is a fairly iffy question.

..snip..



More than 20 minutes and less than 30 minutes. Moderate pace, closer to 30 minutes.
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Re: Estimating time

Postby TomBikes » Mon Dec 10, 2012 10:27 pm

Good to hear. Thanks for the speedy replies.

What about if i were to do the whole 30km circuit at a fairly high RPE (rate of perceived exhaustion)?

40 minutes? 50?
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Re: Estimating time

Postby mitzikatzi » Mon Dec 10, 2012 10:31 pm

"Traffic" plays a factor.

You should be able to average more than 25kmh if you can average 40kmh take up racing.
My guess low 30's kmh.

I have no idea how fit you are.
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Re: Estimating time

Postby roller » Tue Dec 11, 2012 9:29 am

TomBikes wrote:Good to hear. Thanks for the speedy replies.

What about if i were to do the whole 30km circuit at a fairly high RPE (rate of perceived exhaustion)?

40 minutes? 50?


42 minutes and 56 seconds.
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Re: Estimating time

Postby JustJames » Tue Dec 11, 2012 10:47 am

roller wrote:
TomBikes wrote:Good to hear. Thanks for the speedy replies.

What about if i were to do the whole 30km circuit at a fairly high RPE (rate of perceived exhaustion)?

40 minutes? 50?


42 minutes and 56 seconds.


That's the most ridiculous thing I've ever read on the web, and I've been on the web since it was all just trees and open spaces y'know!





43 minutes and 2 seconds is the correct answer.
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Re: Estimating time

Postby human909 » Tue Dec 11, 2012 11:13 am

TomBikes wrote:Good to hear. Thanks for the speedy replies.

What about if i were to do the whole 30km circuit at a fairly high RPE (rate of perceived exhaustion)?

40 minutes? 50?


My opinion on maintainable FLAT speeds, no traffic:

Very Unfit: 10kph
Unfit/older non cyclist: 15kph
My 65yo mother(on a sit up an beg): 18kph
'Average fitness' person, casual female commuter: 20kph
Fit non cyclist, out of shape cyclist: 25kph <======= You
Me when I'm out of shape: 27kph <======= You at fairly high RPE
Fit cyclist: 30kph
Quite fit cyclist (me when I'm 'fit') 35kph
Very fit cyclists who ride several times weekly: 35kph++
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Re: Estimating time

Postby goneriding » Tue Dec 11, 2012 11:39 am

Also depends on the other people sharing the bike path (dogs on/off leads, iPeds, jogger-saurases) as that can slow you down considerably. When I commute into the CDB, traffic plays a big part on my average (~5 km/h range) as does weather and leg quality.

Keep in mind that even though you are reasonably fit, regular commuter cycling will take it out of you until your body adjusts. Being a rower, this will happen fairly quickly.

Irrespective of speed - enjoy!
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Re: Estimating time

Postby bigfriendlyvegan » Tue Dec 11, 2012 12:13 pm

I always estimate time based on 20km/hr. This seems to accommodate for traffic, work sites, pit stops, and a quick tube change (though not all at once). My wife always has a go at me about the times I estimate, but it's better to be on the safe side.
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Re: Estimating time

Postby westab » Tue Dec 11, 2012 1:48 pm

Speed on your commute is also dependant on what you are carting along. BFG estimate of 20km/h is about right if you need to make sure that you are where you need to be on time.

I find that even when tired I can do this speed into a strong headwind in similar situation to yourself. my usual speed is approx 25 km/h ave with panniers with about 12kg of gear in them riding a 21 y.o. Repco Superlite.

Tom in regard to the 30km long way at flat out - sounds like a good ride. If you want to do this regularly as part of your commute I would consider doing one at an easy pace to set a benchmark and then if you are doing this ride once a week aim for one at "flat out", one at the benchmark pace and in between these two rides rides between the flat out pace and the bench mark. this should help increase the speed slowly as you get more bike fit. Hope this helps.
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Re: Estimating time

Postby Xplora » Tue Dec 11, 2012 2:20 pm

Do your ride, then work on your average speed improvements. Face the fact that you CANNOT average 30-40kmh for the entire ride safely because you just don't have time to negotiate corners etc. I realised that I'm actually closing in on my top speed for my commute because the extra time I make up makes me ride REALLY fast on some sections, which is just unsafe. I can hit 63kmh on the downhills, but I can't stop if a car comes into my path. I'd basically be unclipping and aiming for a low part of the car to superman over... bike paths are a pain, they aren't as quick as the road. I've been incorporating more main roads into my commute to improve my average speeds. Much safer to do 40 on a road designed for it.
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Re: Estimating time

Postby TomBikes » Tue Dec 11, 2012 3:40 pm

Thanks for the great replies everyone.

I'm getting my kit together tomorrow and will come back with some averages on Friday or there about.

So, Place Ya Bets! :lol:
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Re: Estimating time

Postby sogood » Tue Dec 11, 2012 6:10 pm

Just go and enjoy the ride, don't let time worry you! Define the time you have available and then just turn back when you are half way through (subject to wind strength and direction variations). :mrgreen:
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Re: Estimating time

Postby bigfriendlyvegan » Tue Dec 11, 2012 6:38 pm

sogood wrote:Just go and enjoy the ride, don't let time worry you!


Tell that to my boss when he rings up and asks how soon can I get over to North Sydney.
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Re: Estimating time

Postby TomBikes » Tue Dec 11, 2012 10:39 pm

sogood wrote: ...just turn back when you are half way through...


Not quite an option. Meeting a friend for lunch so...not showing up would be a wee little bit problematic.
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Re: Estimating time

Postby sogood » Tue Dec 11, 2012 11:32 pm

TomBikes wrote:Not quite an option. Meeting a friend for lunch so...not showing up would be a wee little bit problematic.

Seriously, until you've actually ridden, you won't know what you are and not capable of. If time is that critical, then you need to give you self a big buffer eg. Do you know how to patch a tyre in the event of a flat? How long would that take you?
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Re: Estimating time

Postby TomBikes » Wed Dec 12, 2012 10:16 am

Yes, i know how to patch a tire. Don't worry about me, I'm semi-competent :lol:
I've BMX for a while so I know a bit about basics. Its just some of the more roady or mountian bike stuff such as geometry which i have not a clue about.
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Re: Estimating time

Postby TomBikes » Mon Dec 17, 2012 8:36 am

Did a 21km loop just then. I managed to clock an average of about 25-27 km/h on the Capital City trail. But on the section of my ride which covered parks and such I clocked an average speed of a measly 19-15 km/h due to dogs, gum nuts, roots and all those park related things.
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Re: Estimating time

Postby sb944 » Mon Dec 17, 2012 12:39 pm

My original commute was a traffic filled, hilly 10.5km, on a single speed, could do it in about 50 minutes first couple of attempts. A month in, I was seeing more like 35 minutes, partially strength building up, partially confidence. A few months later I now avoid traffic a little more, so it's minimum 13km and can be done under 30 minutes if everything goes my way. If you add lockup time, shower time before work, it's back to more like 50 minutes I'd leave myself to do that minimum journey and arrive at my desk on time.
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