Cyclist fatalities surge

AdelaidePeter
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Re: Cyclist fatalities surge

Postby AdelaidePeter » Wed Aug 08, 2018 5:45 pm

Alex Simmons/RST wrote:[

This is the trend by financial years:

Image

The most recent 10 financial years average is 36.6 with SD of 9.3 fatalities.
The most recent 20 financial years average is 37.1 with SD of 7.7 fatalities.

IOW the number of fatalities in 2017-18 financial year is within one standard deviation of the 10 year average and all but within 1SD of the 20 year average.


And that shows the real story: that bicycle deaths have been pretty static - at least since 2007, possibly since about 2000. There is no terrible surge in bicycle fatalities; but the fact that they are static is horrific enough, and reason enough for serious action.

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Thoglette
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Re: Cyclist fatalities surge

Postby Thoglette » Wed Aug 08, 2018 5:50 pm

Thoglette wrote:Also interesting article in The Guardian today. Will link later, unless someone beats me to it.


Didn't stay on teh front page for long.

Australian cyclist deaths surge and road safety strategy 'failing'

Mostly not talking about cycling. But it's in line with my observations of the trends over the last three years or so.

Patrick Keneally, The Guardian wrote:All states are on track to miss road safety targets amid a rise in driver, passenger and cycling deaths

Australia’s road safety strategy is failing, according to the nation’s peak motoring body, with cyclists recording the biggest increase in the number of road fatalities.

A report by the Australian Automobile Association shows there were 1,222 deaths on the road in 2017-18 and, for the first time, all states are on track to miss the national road safety targets they signed up to in 2011.


BN gets a few lines in but mostly it scores a "meh" from me.
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Alex Simmons/RST
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Re: Cyclist fatalities surge

Postby Alex Simmons/RST » Thu Aug 09, 2018 7:09 am

The cycling fatality data needs to be considered in context of:
i. population growth over the same period, which has been increasing (and the data on this is very reliable)
ii. cycling participation rates and amount of time spent cycling, both of which have been declining (but the data is based on modest sample sizes and as such is more prone to error)

The real trend in road fatalities has been car occupants. These numbers reached their lowest point 4-5 years ago and have been gradually trending upwards since, by approx. 80-100 more fatalities per year.

I'm all for using data to help us understand the issues and identify solutions but poor use of data harms the debate, not enhances it.

Reality is the things that work for improving safety are factors that:
a. normalises cycling in the minds of the population as a valid activity/transport option
b. urban design which prioritises active transport options ahead of single occupant motor vehicles

That such things also have positive influence on congestion, environmental health and the health and well being of the population are helpful arguments but the reality is the scales are so tipped in favour of motor vehicles I'm not sure I'll ever see it really change here.

Just looking at the Census data for 2016 for mode of transport to work.
Car: 6.575 million people or 68.7% transport mode share.
Bicycle: 0.108 million or 1.1% transport mode share.

It's such a massive imbalance.

Since 2011 Census, car's mode share increase by 0.5% from 68.2% and cycling's went down 0.1% from 1.2%.

Scintilla
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Re: Cyclist fatalities surge

Postby Scintilla » Thu Aug 09, 2018 10:53 am

AdelaidePeter wrote:And that shows the real story: that bicycle deaths have been pretty static - at least since 2007, possibly since about 2000. There is no terrible surge in bicycle fatalities; but the fact that they are static is horrific enough, and reason enough for serious action.

50% increase in bicyclist fatalities in Victoria last year (after many years of slow decline)

http://www.tac.vic.gov.au/road-safety/s ... ost-annual

AdelaidePeter
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Re: Cyclist fatalities surge

Postby AdelaidePeter » Thu Aug 09, 2018 11:18 am

Scintilla wrote:
AdelaidePeter wrote:And that shows the real story: that bicycle deaths have been pretty static - at least since 2007, possibly since about 2000. There is no terrible surge in bicycle fatalities; but the fact that they are static is horrific enough, and reason enough for serious action.

50% increase in bicyclist fatalities in Victoria last year (after many years of slow decline)

http://www.tac.vic.gov.au/road-safety/s ... ost-annual


Cyclist deaths in the last few years in Victoria (2010-2017) have been 8, 8, 7, 6, 10, 10, 8, 12. Last year was horrible and 12 is 12 too many, but as I tried to explain on the last page, it's well within the bounds of random variation one would expect. 2018 has actually been Victoria's best first 6 months since 2009 (3 cyclist deaths), but that's not likely to be any more than random variation either.

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Alex Simmons/RST
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Re: Cyclist fatalities surge

Postby Alex Simmons/RST » Thu Aug 09, 2018 3:05 pm

So can anyone point me to the story from the previous year shouting from the rooftops about cycling fatalities dropping by a huge amount and how amazing and wonderful that all the cycle safety measures have been having an impact?

Oh right, there wasn't one.

This is why a focus on simple year to year variations is ill considered and unhelpful.

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