Elderly man lost control of his car and hit two adults, a child and parked cars at Adelaide airport

AdelaidePeter
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Re: Elderly man lost control of his car and hit two adults, a child and parked cars at Adelaide airport

Postby AdelaidePeter » Mon Aug 13, 2018 1:40 pm

bychosis wrote:As I read this, morning tv has a segment on middle aged men being the deadliest drivers in NSW. 40-49 males. Wonder how they get that?


The numbers quoted in the Tele were "drivers involved in fatal crashes" "in the past year" in NSW; and said there were 105 in their 40s compared to 94 aged 17-25. I don't know their source, but it doesn't appear to be the publicly available BITRE data. As I said above, the BITRE data only gives the ages of the fatalities, not the ages of the drivers.

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MichaelB
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Location: Adelaide, South Australia

Re: Elderly man lost control of his car and hit two adults, a child and parked cars at Adelaide airport

Postby MichaelB » Mon Aug 13, 2018 3:30 pm

AdelaidePeter wrote: ...
It's a reasonable estimate because bad drivers are more likely to be injured or killed themselves. Obviously there are some cases where the driver at-fault injures or kills someone else (like in this instance), but they are more or less balanced by cases where the not-at-fault is injured or killed due to someone else. If older drivers really were a huge hazard, we'd see a lot of them killing themselves due to their bad driving, and the numbers don't show this happening. Obviously it'd be better if we had data on who was at fault in every crash, but that data isn't available, at least not publicly. I don't deny that older drivers are a bit of an issue, but I maintain it is a much smaller issue than the behaviour of healthy drivers who drive recklessly.


Please show me the data to back this up.

RobertL
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Re: Elderly man lost control of his car and hit two adults, a child and parked cars at Adelaide airport

Postby RobertL » Mon Aug 13, 2018 3:33 pm

AdelaidePeter wrote:
bychosis wrote:As I read this, morning tv has a segment on middle aged men being the deadliest drivers in NSW. 40-49 males. Wonder how they get that?


The numbers quoted in the Tele were "drivers involved in fatal crashes" "in the past year" in NSW; and said there were 105 in their 40s compared to 94 aged 17-25. I don't know their source, but it doesn't appear to be the publicly available BITRE data. As I said above, the BITRE data only gives the ages of the fatalities, not the ages of the drivers.


Also, ages 17-25 covers 9 years, while "40s" is 10 years. 94 deaths in a 9-year range equates to 104.44 deaths in a 10-year range, which is basically identical to the actual 105 deaths. So there is literally no difference between the death rate in those age ranges.
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AdelaidePeter
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Re: Elderly man lost control of his car and hit two adults, a child and parked cars at Adelaide airport

Postby AdelaidePeter » Mon Aug 13, 2018 3:37 pm

MichaelB wrote:
AdelaidePeter wrote: ...
It's a reasonable estimate because bad drivers are more likely to be injured or killed themselves..


Please show me the data to back this up.


Well... if you're not happy with that assumption, I think I'll drop it.

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