2021 TdF - A really open year again ?

[MichaelB]

https://inrng.com/tour/

Well, It's about to start again, and with the Giro run and done, Dauhpine also done as with some of the other leadup races, but some of the key candidates haven't yet raced against each other, so it's a bit lineball as to who's gonna win

Whilst there are some lumpy days in the 1st week of LeTour, the Stage 5 ITT will provide the 1st real taste of the GC

https://64.media.tumblr.com/45b10d41a0e ... cff622.jpg

Stage 8 sees the 1st mountain test with the Col de Colombiere (and two other Cat 1's) packed into 151km ...


Followed by Stage 9 packed with lotsa climbs over even less distanec, 145km . Then the 1st rest day.


Then after an easy post rest day stage , there is this monster with a double ascent and descent of Mont Ventoux


Then after a couple of flatter stages, there is a quintet of climbing stages !!! Two stages (14 & 15), followed by the 2nd rest day, with then a trio of mountainous stages - 16, 17 & 18 before the penultimate TT on Stage 20




Who's your tip for the podium ?

I honestly have no idea, but would like to see Rog, Pog & Porte, with Woods an outsider

[AndrewCowley]

I hope the Ventoux x2 stage isn't a fizzer. I have my doubts though. 1x Ventoux with a finish on the summit would be much better.

As for yellow, it's a case of unfinished business for Roglic.

[stevenaaus]

Looking forward to a good race. *Maybe* Ineos will be able to ambush the Slovenian pair. There's also that Padun guy that incredulously smashed a couple of hill stages in the Dauphine.

[fat and old]

I would really like to see Ineos give Porte priority without announcing it. Just let him be last man up the hills. Dunno how long it could be done without it being to obvious tho. He's always done well on the Tourmalet, Luz, Peyresourde etc. His time trial seems strong atm. Only issue is his inability to go long range berko, ala Pogacar, at least I haven't ever seen him do that.

If he gets another drink of whatever he had pre time trial last year, I'd have to put my $$$ on Pog.

[Sharkey]

* After Jumbo's team performance last year I thought it could be an interesting showdown between them and Ineos to see which team controls this year's race but other than Roglic the rest of the team (Bennet, Dumoulin, Kruijsweijk, Kuss, Van Aert) does not appear to be at the same level as they were last year.
* Ineos have the strongest team on paper but it might have been a mistake not to include a big engine like Ganna or Dennis to help on the flat / windy stages. They also have the recent results winning 5 stage race GCs this year (with 5 different riders) but neither Roglic or Pogacar were at any of those races.
* Can Movistar work as a team and live up to their potential for a change?
* Pogacar showed last year that you don't need a great team to win the race.

[find_bruce]

I would really like to see Ineos give Porte priority without announcing it. Just let him be last man up the hills. Dunno how long it could be done without it being to obvious tho. He's always done well on the Tourmalet, Luz, Peyresourde etc. His time trial seems strong atm. Only issue is his inability to go long range berko, ala Pogacar, at least I haven't ever seen him do that.

If he gets another drink of whatever he had pre time trial last year, I'd have to put my $$$ on Pog.

I'm disappointed - I felt for sure you were going to suggest Boo for the green jersey & Froome for the yellow

[MichaelB]

...
* Can Movistar work as a team and live up to their potential for a change?
...

The 2nd Season of 'The Least Expected Day' is on Netflix, and it doesn't change the above view. It's been a really interesting and watchable series, and I'm surprised what gets shown, as it doesn't paint a good picture of the team, so maybe the reality is MUCH worse.

Agree with Sharkey's points, there isn't the usual build where key teams have side by side hitouts, so hard to see the real pecking order.

[Sharkey]

...
* Can Movistar work as a team and live up to their potential for a change?
...

The 2nd Season of 'The Least Expected Day' is on Netflix, and it doesn't change the above view....

Yep, I watched the whole series last weekend, hence the comment.

[stevenaaus]

* Ineos have the strongest team on paper but it might have been a mistake not to include a big engine like Ganna or Dennis to help on the flat / windy stages.

Hmm - I can't see any official announcement , but here
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_t ... ce#By_team
They reckon Rohan is going.

* Pogacar showed last year that you don't need a great team to win the race.

A team with two genuine GC contenders will make life hard for any individual if they ride and attack properly. Dog knows why JV failed to try this card last year, instead working Dumoulin into the ground as a domestic. Ineos won't make this mistake.

[Sharkey]

* Ineos have the strongest team on paper but it might have been a mistake not to include a big engine like Ganna or Dennis to help on the flat / windy stages.

Hmm - I can't see any official announcement , but here
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_t ... ce#By_team
They reckon Rohan is going.

Yes, there doesn't appear to be a definitive list of the teams yet. The list I looked at earlier today did not include Dennis but I just found another one that does. Maybe Sir Dave read my post and realised the mistake he was making.

[AndrewCowley]

Is anybody like me and last year deciding not to bother watching the last TT only to wake up to the news with egg on your face? Note to self, expect the unexpected.

[fat and old]

I would really like to see Ineos give Porte priority without announcing it. Just let him be last man up the hills. Dunno how long it could be done without it being to obvious tho. He's always done well on the Tourmalet, Luz, Peyresourde etc. His time trial seems strong atm. Only issue is his inability to go long range berko, ala Pogacar, at least I haven't ever seen him do that.

If he gets another drink of whatever he had pre time trial last year, I'd have to put my $$$ on Pog.

I'm disappointed - I felt for sure you were going to suggest Boo for the green jersey & Froome for the yellow

I almost tipped TJVG for a podium

[MichaelB]

Interesting post, and one I really agree with from Phillipa York

https://www.cyclingnews.com/features/ph ... d-captain/

[vosadrian]

Pogacar seems to me strongest in the final week of a Grand tour. I think he will just ride into his form through the first half tryiing to remain in contention without being noticed and become an issue for inneos in the second half. Pogacar may be wise to play down any form he may have. If Inneos still have multiple contenders in the race late in the race and play the tactics right they may be able to deal with him, but what are the chances of that deep in the 3rd week?

I predict a bit of power play early in the tour between TJV and Inneos. I think the Slovenian contenders are stronger as individuals than anyone on Inneos, so Inneos will have to play strategy to their advantage to take it. TJV are not looking as strong this year, and Roglic has a considerable mental challenge of what happened last year so will be tough for him. It is unlikely he will be stronger than Pogacar near the end of the race... so maybe he has to take time early and defend? Or...... He seems to be light on racing recently... so perhaps trying to go in fresh and peak late?

Agree with above... heopfully Richie can be saved from domestique duties as long as possible... but with 4 possible GC hopefuls in Inneos... 1-2 are going to need to sacrifice their chances before the 3rd week? Who would you choose?

[AndrewCowley]

Not hopeful of Porte getting any GC consideration. Quid pro quo. Ineos gave him the Dauphine and now he has to return the favour.

Can't see both Thomas and Carapaz both crapping out, and even if they did, it'd be so late in the 3 weeks that Porte will have already ceded masses of GC time.

Did I read correctly that Dennis won't be on the Ineos team? Weird one if so, given his absolute heroics last year.

[fat and old]

Dunno. From what I saw Ineos didn't really "give" the Dauphine until Thomas couldn't keep up out on Stg 7 (I forgot Porte let loose with 8/8.5k's to go. Maybe he can go medium range berko at least), and the writing was on the wall from the TT of stg 4. In every pic of every stage there's Porte, second to last breaking the wind for Thomas. He definitely gave it up for Thomas in stg 5, after the TT. I reckon they just saw the writing on the wall, and Porte was that writing. Given his form, and better TT ability I'd expect Porte to get more consideration than Carapaz but he said after the Suisse

“The truth is that this is a showing of the strength of the team that we have, and of course, I am going to share the leadership with Geraint.

So he expects Porte to work for him.

I'd like to see the humble fella win

[AndrewCowley]

Thing is though, historically over his career, Richie hasn't been a 'go medium range berko' climber. It was great to see him do that recently but it was a bit of a bolt from the blue.

[fat and old]

Yeah, I agree. Maybe he'll get some confidence out of it, try it more? Dunno, but at least he showed us and himself he could do it.

[vosadrian]

Can't see both Thomas and Carapaz both crapping out, and even if they did, it'd be so late in the 3 weeks that Porte will have already ceded masses of GC time.

I agree that they are unlikely to crap out before late in the race.... but Thomas and Porte have a bit of a nack for being involved in crashes. And the pressure of the TDF on everyone increases the crash risk. With 4 GC contenders, there is a high chance 1-2 will be involved in misadventure of some type.

[Sharkey]

Here is a great Eurosport summary of the Tour teams (without knowing the exact make-up). More entertainment than analysis but is amusingly accurate.

TOUR DE FRANCE CYCLING – TEAM GUIDE: STAR RIDERS, MEMORABLE MOMENTS, WHICH ICY REFRESHMENT ARE THEY?

[stevenaaus]

Haha - good laugh.
following links, i found this https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ituh5z6P6TU
Looking forward to Horner's videos. He's an entertainer alright, and with his background super knowledgable about the peleton. But unbiased and honest

[Arbuckle23]

Really been enjoying Chris Horner's stuff

[foo on patrol]

Just seen this on my FB feed. Another young rider on the move and into the big time. Queenslander. Some of my friends that hail from Warwick say he has loads of potential.

https://www.sbs.com.au/cyclingcentral/a ... w3Ogo8KBSU

Foo

[foo on patrol]

An historic moment for South Africa also.

https://www.sbs.com.au/cyclingcentral/a ... vuy2wcHY5w

Foo

[find_bruce]

As Bennett is fit, its no surprise that Cavendish misses out. Not sure Bennett would be happy with team manager saying "Sam isn’t the strongest in his own head"